Urban process and risks

Is important remember the that our planet is rapidly urbanizing, in order to understand more about what the human impact of high-end climate change and their risks associated, as pollution, floods, climate change, droughts or floods. By 2050, 70% of the world’s population is expected to become urban.

More than half of the world’s population already lives in urban areas and the number is expected to only increase. Between 2010 and 2030, the urban population is expected to nearly double, growing by an additional 1.5 billion people.
The city’s microclimate, above with global climate change, result in an urban heat island effect. Trees can also contribute indirectly to climate-change mitigation by providing more shade and cooling, thereby reducing overall energy consumption.
Cities and their inhabitants and governments should take in account the increasing number of occurrence of extreme natural events and the social perception.

This video illustrating our urbanizing, explaining the challenges and opportunities that come with an increasingly urbanized planet.

The risk of hail storm

The hail storm is a form of precipitation that falls from the sky as pellets of ice. The pellets can range in size from small pea-sized pellets, to hailstones as large as grapefruits. Hail is especially damaging to crops.

The risk of hail storm is especially high in ares with school for children. In this case is important to differentiate the risk of accidents caused by the impact and risk exposure. The probability of hail (PH), the damage caused by the rain that depends on the size of the ice (DG) and the value of what is at risk, for example the population of children (VR). The calculation for these three major components of risk that this phenomenon faces indicates the “severity” or gravity of the loss, can be expressed:

Expected Loss = PH * DG * VR

Often general forecasts from the various agencies lack the detail required to predict hailstorms 24 hours to up to a week ahead. It is possible of course possible to provide such assessment of hail risk with an accuracy of up to 95% particularly on the day prior to the actual day. Nevertheless, more often than not, a study of special models and their variable behavior can provide sufficient lead time forecasts for those involved in various industries immediately associated with or affected by hail to prepare for the onslaught of hailstorms.

A example that is the sudden hail storm that happens in city Russian of Novosibirsk in July of 2014. Sudden a cold snap to 20 degrees (from 41 to 21), plus strong winds and hail.

We may not be able to stop hailstorms, but effective preparation can reduce to risk to life. and property.

Some results publish on the web of University of Alicante

Some results of on research about social perception of natural hazards made in Spain and publish at magazine Investigaciones Geograficas, had been publish on the web page of the University of Alicante. The results highlight that the floods, droughts and forest fires are detected as major threats by natural phenomena in the population of the Mediterranean coast.

For more information access the link for the news at University of Alicante

The risk of one coming storm: forecast update and the storm Xaver in Europe

Forecast for extreme weather in Europe.

Forecast for extreme weather in Europe.

A developing extra tropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic, dubbed “Xaver”, is predicted to very strong into a potent storm with winds near hurricane force. The storm Xaver struck northern Europe on Thursday night with speed winds of 200km/h. It affected several people and causing flooding, damage and transport disruption across Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and southern Sweden.

The combination of many factors as strong winds, cold air from Greenland and high tide of the sea putted in a more severe position the recent storm. The video below shows the the beginning of the storm in Toruń, Poland:

The risk of storms come again to Europe, people in the affected areas are advised to remain indoors wherever possible and to take extra caution if going outdoors cannot be avoided. Continuing height falls across central and Eastern Europe on the one hand and increasing geopotential across the northern Atlantic result in a west-north-westerly flow over most of Europe on Thursday morning. A strong winter storm with intense cold air addiction was ll be dominant in the storm. Across southern Europe, subsidence is expected through-out the forecast period. The pictures below shows some impacts in Toruń in Poland.

Storm at the city of Toruń, Poland.

Storm at the city of Toruń, Poland.

The predicted surface winds of the storm Xaver was similar to the ones the Netherlands experienced during the past.The deadliest flood of the last hundred years in Germany was the North Sea flood in 1962, where many dikes broke and 340 people were killed. In the Bremerhaven area, the dikes from the 1840s were just able to withstand the storm surge but were heavily damaged.  The video below shows of flood waters grudgingly return to the North Sea in 1953.

We should be better prepared for severe storms and the risks associated with these events. The warning in anticipation of risks as extremely stormy weather could potentially lead to dangerous conditions.

Reflections from COP19, Friday 22 November

The end of COP19 and continue the fight for the green world. Around 195 countries ended a two-week meeting in Warsaw on Saturday evening to agree the outlines of a deal meant to be agreed in 2015 to combat global warming. Last day of the COP19, the press conference with United States of America said about the last advance of the last two days with others countries. Most of the important actions are been made by countries, even been a global problem as the carbon on the atmosphere are. The first agreement of the world related with an international law. There symbols the success in these COP19 is the difference that each one can do, the mayor areas are the discussion and negotiations of the big agreement.

In the IPCC press briefing on message was that we will have to adapt to sea level rise. We have the chance to decide in each world we want live, with less the 2°C or more than 4°C, the green house emissions are one of the key points the a sustainable climate.

Are the COP just business and good luck or real change? The politicians look like they are discounted from the society, and the delay in the decisions and actions for one world community is absolutely important. What the climate crisis need is transparent process. Some of the main decisions and talks at the U.N. climate in Warsaw were:

♦ The good news that was presented in the plenary room during the afternoon was the Red++ that USA, Norway and United Kingdom putted US$ 280 million. The developed nations promised in 2009 to increase their aid to poorer countries to help them cope with climate change to $100 billion a year after 2020, from $10 billion a year in 2010-12. But in Warsaw they rejected calls to set targets for 2013-19.

♦ Related with loss and damage the talks agreed a new “Warsaw International Mechanism” to provide expertise, and possibly aid, to help developing nations cope with losses from extreme events related to climate change. The exact form of the mechanism will be reviewed in 2016.

♦ In the way to 2015 countries agreed to announce plans for curbs on greenhouse gases beyond 2020 “well in advance” of a summit in Paris in December 2015 and “by the first quarter of 2015 for those in a position to do so”. It called the submissions “intended nationally determined contributions” – the word “intended” hinting they are open to change. Many developed nations had wanted the word “commitments”.

♦ For the pre-2020 the conference did not outline new targets for more near-term action to reduce emissions. Japan announced during the conference it had scaled back its 2020 target, aiming now for a 3.1-percent increase from 1990, compared to its previous promise of a 25-percent cut.

♦ The markets talks on how to set up new market-based mechanisms to curb emissions failed because developing nations refused to advance the process unless rich countries take on tougher emissions targets. Talks will resume in the first half of next year.

♦ About the monitoring details were finalised on how countries’ emissions reductions will be monitored, reported and verified.

♦ The clean development mechanism the conference agreed on a measure that could boost demand for the ailing mechanism, encouraging countries without legally binding emissions targets to use carbon credits called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). A proposal to implement a floor price for CERs was removed from a technical paper while a wider review of the CDM by a technical board was pushed to talks in Bonn in March 2014.

♦ About the deforestation the conference agreed a multi-billion dollar framework to tackle deforestation. The fledgling Green Climate Fund will play a key role in channelling finance for projects to halt deforestation to host governments, who in turn must set up national agencies to oversee the money.

Today at the COP19 one of the main questions for me was what must the 2015 treaty do? What has Warsaw delivered? As it was write in the official web about the climate change, difficult questions – simple answers; but the question after all is how much we advanced to understand the climate negotiations? The current problems such as the last tragedy in the Philippines, this is just the beginning of what awaits us if we do not make a concerted effort to prevent from climate change. The concert is that the world needs climate justice. And after all these days here it is time to go, thanks Warsaw▄

Reflections from COP19, Tuesday 21 November

Today at the UNFCCC COP19 had the news about the polish Presidency of the COP19 Climate Summit remains unchanged. By taking a decision on change on the post of minister of environment of Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the same time reassured the position as the President of COP19.

The other discussion was the NGOs like Greenpeace, Oxfam left the conference. This initiative basically drew the attention of the member states. Because they were not only NGOs, were also the G77 and China that threatened before and are some delegates who are on hunger strike. Today China pronounces that “we understand why NGOs left the conference and we show our complete solidarity towards them”. Today for example there was a demonstration of empathy for some member states. This demonstrates the urgency of taking concrete action on mitigation and adaptation.

At the plenary room with the Ministers Mr. Pithaya Pookaman from Thailand talked about cooperation. During the afternoon the plenary room the ministers talked about harmony between development and environment. The climate change is on the conscious in the declarations. The Mr. Dion Taufitu, Associate Minister from the Meteorological Service (NIUE) talked about efficiently communication and implementation related with climate change.

The Joint High-level Segment was one opportunity to listen some many experiences of impacts of climate change, Bangladesh talked about loss and damage and the importance of choice. In Portugal with Jose Moreira da Silva, Minister of Environment, Spatial Planning and Energy from Portugal said about the importance to advance in the development of the next steps for Paris. Overall Portugal is leading on renewable energy, will soon lead on energy efficiency and green fiscal reforms and will set more ambitious mitigation targets.

The summary results of the Climate Change Performance Index 2014 made by the Observing, Analyzing, Acting (Germanwatch), indicated the global ranking of the Portugal it is in 6 position; Brazil 36 and Poland 45.

The pronunciation of Timor-Leste, emissions very low, however we have high vulnerability and we are experiencing several extreme weather events. Parties need to reaffirm commitments on mitigation of emissions and take decisions to support capacity and adaptation measures▄

Reflections from COP19, Wednesday 20 November

Today at the COP19 the press briefing with the European Union stated remember about the reflections about the historical responsibility and also putting that it is a moment to agree and negotiate. How we can maximize the investments from the found create in the COP.

In the plenary room the Minister of El Salvador Mr. Jaime Miranda remembers the importance to create a system to finance and support vulnerable countries that suffer with climate change and landscape change. The Minister of Peru, talked about what the society waiting for the COP in Warsaw and what deals. The emergency its global, and that´s why it is very importance for actions for adaptation for many years. What we want for 2020?

Only a global response can mitigate the complex situation of climate change. The Minister of Angola Maria de Fatima said about the low price of the Carbon in the market and the desertification process that is suffering. The state of the Australia is clearly not helping the negations to flow adaptation services. The Greenpeace, AA, WWF, FotE, CA, Oxfam  press room talked about democracy and a reflex of the society in the decision by the politicians.

Good video about scientific aspects of climate change and its impact on climate with my friend Environmental Engineer Ricardo Costa made during the COP.

During the press room with Japan the themes of the banks taking money out of this movement. Some of the developing countries have to have on efficient technology power plants for provision of energy, there are some thinks on the side. Loss and damage was the language in many discussions and specially in the Bangladesh relating migration and climate change▄

Reflections from COP19, Tuesday 19 November

Today here in Warsaw, Poland at the 19th annual Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) we stated a very intense week. Social development is associated with climate change. The experience of the events like COP gives the best orientations looking for 2020.

At the press room with the Blue Green Alliance Foundation discussed environmental, business and U.S. climate action plan. The emissions in US are down, renewable energy are double, and others many efforts. Another importance fact is the indicative of USA and Canada. It is address the climate change. The experience of USA and the investment is importance and had created many jobs. This approach with economical, shows regards actions climate plans, managing the politics with a low carbon. For the USA view in the last years dramatic changes in energy had became grow, natural gas was 71% and a trend of this process it´s support by national actions. Obvious it is crucial what is doing USA with one of the second historical emissions, the dynamic it’s changing with a momentum where the plans move for face out public finance to implement green gas lines. USA politics support actions to reduce. And we should not where a lot of flexibility from USA in the COP.

The COP19 can provide a driver international agreement. Really, the COP19 it is also about 2015 and 2020 that are getting most of the attention, and right fully so. In Copenhagen in 2009, international parties committed to reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions that have a deadline of 2020.

The ministers had arrived today at the stadium; let´s see what they will play. It´s necessary more clarity and balance before after and before 2050. The applicability to all the countries is a key concert. It is a high expectation for this ministerial meeting at COP19.

A chocolate cake without chocolate, it´s how is called the finance negotiations here in Warsaw, negotiations of a new system for that the developing countries asking by this mechanism are being blocking by Australia and Japan.

Loss and damage are on the face people here say. During the afternoon we had the high-level segment with the presence of H.E. Mr. Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland; Mr. John Ashe, President of UN General Assembly and Mr. Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Can some seconds make our memory see our short history in the universe and that we are just guests in the planet. The plenary section started with a very inspiring song and draws on the sand and light. We all hope that this will touch and heart of all the ministers and people involved at the COP19 that we just have one house and we need to build how we want live. Because I care!

The Prime Minister of Poland cited during his speech the accident in Fukushima and the climate change it’s a fact and evident. In the speech of Mr. Ban Ki-moon, that we are sharing responsibility and also mention the victims of Philippines, to science is clear the human influence on climate change, and sited the places that hi visited this year like Sahara or Greenland where he his climatic conditions put in risk social security. The scale of ours actions in the COP is not sufficient, but he also sees some hope in low carbon future. Voices of civil society give support the scientific recommendations, the IPCC had make a very clear report about the climate change phenomenon.

Success in Paris means solutions and negations, in the crucial time for your country and your neighbor. In the speech of Mr. John Ashe, he said that we are not strangers in these negotiations with the same arguments. Just one human family in the same circumstances, we must reach a deal in 2015 by the necessity of all. Climate change play an important role, we all faced. It is necessary be realistic for a sustainable developed. We who are ONU family must reach a agreement.

The real implementation witch knowledge and experience of the countries we can use good solutions. The world is became frustrated under the convection, they recognize the share responsibility. What had changed? As we approach 2015, do not for yourself do it for the next generation, yes will do something. Africa continent suffers with climate change while had a small contribution on the emissions of carbon at the atmosphere▄

Reflections from COP19, Saturday 16 November

This first week the main discussion and subject was the recent disasters event in Philippines. While the representative from Philippines was crying in Warsaw, during the COP19 in Warsaw, the ONU was checking the number of affected people 10 billion people affect by the strong storm Yaines, 660.000 was without house, it is like all the city of Lisbon was without home. What is not clear yet it is how the “stung storm” in create an impact for the next two years in Paris, when negotiators will have to deliver a new global climate agreement, which entered into force in 2020 and will be valid for all countries.

Publication on the Internacional New York Times.

Publication on the International New York Times.

“We are here worrying and we can fix this we can stop the madness right now right here. In the middle of this football field, and start to change”, said the representative from Philippines Monday asking help that was doing hunger-strike in solidarity with his country and people that are looking food.

The ambition for actions on climate change is clear and could not be clearer than during these week shows the need of action to reduce the emissions of CO2

Reflections from COP19, Friday 15 November

The open plenary started with some discussion and the guiding questions were how could capacity-build be reflected in the 2015 agreement? And what institutions arrangements would be required for capacity-build in the post 2010 period?

Guidance of cooperation is required for be the future more visible. Explore ideas that can reflect for a more coordinate ability for a adaptation actions that can contribute activities to face the climate change.

The speech from Philippines was on big moment at the plenary that focus on the mechanisms for access in order to active on adaptive process. The small delegates from Philippines got a big attention and reflection during this meeting. Balance and support finance it is necessary to make more acceptable the adaption progress, followed by the message from the speech from the European Union. Just a network can support these project.

Reflections from COP19, Thursday 14 November

At the plenary room the discussion about the strategies of technologies transfer, started asking how could technology development and transfer be reflected in the 2015 agreement? And what institutions arrangement would be required in the 2020 period for technology development and transfer?

How to incentives sustainable practices polices that influence the climate change. In the cities 7milion people are moving to cities every month, 6.2 billion people by 2050. Integrate transport and urban planning can contribute in shaping these cities.

The Brazil disasters were cited during the World Bank pronunciation, as one part of the puzzle, relating climate change and finance losses. The case economic damages caused by the natural disasters. Cities and climate change should look also see the need finance projects.

Sustainable transport and climate change benefits, it was the first COP that dedicated a special space for transport and cities. Road safety, air pollution is one of the problems, but what can be done is the question. Better access, how can we avoid the necessity, as in Stockholm, rapid buses, and public bikes; as in Wuhan 94.000; electric vehicles.    Individual cars are a simple of freedom after 90´years and this obstacle for many solutions.

It is urgent mechanisms regarding technology transfer in order to face the climate change. How can be done? We really hope that progress was make▄

Reflections from COP19, Wednesday 13 November

Today at COP19 in Poland there are several important events, a little window of the reality. Evidence of loss and damage from climate change is already happening, says the UNU report, at the press release from Institute for Environment and Humana Security (UNU-EHS), and the press with Dr. Koko Warner presented how the risks are associated with climate change, loss and damage. It is crucial because threats their losses post to sustainable development ad food production. It is happing every where? In the counties where they have research and project it suggest this, but in the same is necessary more understanding of the impacts of climate variability.

On the press meeting with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the provisional statement on the state of the climate 2013 observed. The previous results show as warmer year and a warm trend. Changes in the sea ice extend is evident in the Arctic and is continuous melt of the ice since the last decades. Annual sea level rise in the Pacific is where is most observed and warmer r water it is higher the average from the last decade. The combination of extreme winds and waves are making the cost communities more vulnerable.

COP19, Poland

COP19, Poland

How does the climate change affect extreme events, in these context the wind speech’s and storms like the recent event in Philippines are observed more frequently.

It is still difficult link extreme events and climate change.

At the IPCC press meeting with Thomas Stoker, Jonathn Lynn and Renete Crist, about the report of Climate Change 2013, on the key questions it is how to prevent and how many parts of CO2 change the temperature before we reach the dangers level, it is necessary consider the scenarios. Regarding the ocean energy balance, it was observed the water salt had changed and also the ph of the ocean. Where did the energy go half of it associated with reduction a atmosphere and internal variability of the climate system.

It is crucial changes and decisions that are so relevant to procedure in order for a sustainable climate with less impact of events such as natural disasters. Time is not on our side but the question is if we are all together to support these decisions▄