Is important remember the that our planet is rapidly urbanizing, in order to understand more about what the human impact of high-end climate change and their risks associated, as pollution, floods, climate change, droughts or floods. By 2050, 70% of the world’s population is expected to become urban.

This video illustrating our urbanizing, explaining the challenges and opportunities that come with an increasingly urbanized planet.

The hail storm is a form of precipitation that falls from the sky as pellets of ice. The pellets can range in size from small pea-sized pellets, to hailstones as large as grapefruits. Hail is especially damaging to crops.

The risk of hail storm is especially high in ares with school for children. In this case is important to differentiate the risk of accidents caused by the impact and risk exposure. The probability of hail (PH), the damage caused by the rain that depends on the size of the ice (DG) and the value of what is at risk, for example the population of children (VR). The calculation for these three major components of risk that this phenomenon faces indicates the “severity” or gravity of the loss, can be expressed:

Expected Loss = PH * DG * VR

Often general forecasts from the various agencies lack the detail required to predict hailstorms 24 hours to up to a week ahead. It is possible of course possible to provide such assessment of hail risk with an accuracy of up to 95% particularly on the day prior to the actual day. Nevertheless, more often than not, a study of special models and their variable behavior can provide sufficient lead time forecasts for those involved in various industries immediately associated with or affected by hail to prepare for the onslaught of hailstorms.

A example that is the sudden hail storm that happens in city Russian of Novosibirsk in July of 2014. Sudden a cold snap to 20 degrees (from 41 to 21), plus strong winds and hail.

We may not be able to stop hailstorms, but effective preparation can reduce to risk to life. and property.

Forecast for extreme weather in Europe.

A developing extra tropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic, dubbed “Xaver”, is predicted to very strong into a potent storm with winds near hurricane force. The storm Xaver struck northern Europe on Thursday night with speed winds of 200km/h. It affected several people and causing flooding, damage and transport disruption across Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and southern Sweden.

The combination of many factors as strong winds, cold air from Greenland and high tide of the sea putted in a more severe position the recent storm. The video below shows the the beginning of the storm in Toruń, Poland:

The risk of storms come again to Europe, people in the affected areas are advised to remain indoors wherever possible and to take extra caution if going outdoors cannot be avoided. Continuing height falls across central and Eastern Europe on the one hand and increasing geopotential across the northern Atlantic result in a west-north-westerly flow over most of Europe on Thursday morning. A strong winter storm with intense cold air addiction was ll be dominant in the storm. Across southern Europe, subsidence is expected through-out the forecast period. The pictures below shows some impacts in Toruń in Poland.

Storm at the city of Toruń, Poland.

The predicted surface winds of the storm Xaver was similar to the ones the Netherlands experienced during the past.The deadliest flood of the last hundred years in Germany was the North Sea flood in 1962, where many dikes broke and 340 people were killed. In the Bremerhaven area, the dikes from the 1840s were just able to withstand the storm surge but were heavily damaged.  The video below shows of flood waters grudgingly return to the North Sea in 1953.

We should be better prepared for severe storms and the risks associated with these events. The warning in anticipation of risks as extremely stormy weather could potentially lead to dangerous conditions.

Accurate knowledge of the frequency distribution of strong surface wind is of major relevance for insurance related risks in Europe. The risk of wind it a kind of not so a popular risk that people are very afraid. As financial losses due to weather extremes escalate, in the development of information related with of wind storm over Europe. The series of number of strong winds shows that in the last 40 years is accompanied by an increase in year-to-year of this phenomenon.

The series of number of strong winds (MeteoSchweiz n°216).

Some weeks ago I experience very windy afternoon in Toruń (city in Poland), a big tree felt down in front of the Department of Nicolaus Copernicus University and crashing into a car, the phenomenon shows how dangerous and extreme strong winds can be.

Results of a very windy afternoon in Toruń, Poland (Photo: Ewa Zukrowska).

After some weeks the North Europe had suffered strong winds. The wind speeds reached more than 150 kph leaving a trail of damage across Europe. The wind brought down trees, blew roofs off houses and turned over trucks, leaving at least 600.000 people without electricity. As consequence of strong winds England, Germany, Denmark, Poland, Sweden and Netherland had some trees that had felt down, cut roads and railways, causing chaos. In a neighbour of London, the city cut the electricity that created a shot circuit followed by a gas explosion.

Evolution of the wind storm in Europe in octuber 2013 (MetOffice)

Climate change has promoted a wide study of the potential impacts of the enhanced green-house effect on the frequency of violent winds. The analysis of extreme winds follows two main different points of view: spatially distributed and generalized view. The magnitude and frequency of extreme wind speed is of fundamental importance for many safety of the society with more risks.

Um dos efeitos esperados como consequência das alterações climáticas é a erosão costeira. Portugal deve ser particularmente afetado pelo aumento de temperatura no futuro. Segundo o último relatório do Painel Intergovernamental para as Alterações Climáticas o pior cenário prevê um aumento de até 9°Celsius no verão até 2100.

Figura 1. Zonas das dunas sendo destruída por ondas em quatro momentos subsequentes (Foto: Rodrigo Ribeiro, 2011).

A imagem acima mostra a destruição de dunas das Gafanhas em Aveiro provocado por ondas em uma das marés. Todos nós nos podemos observar o fenômeno das mares junto à costa, ocorrem quase sempre duas vezes ao dia e com relação ao ciclo lunar, ocorre devido a força gravitacional de atração exercida pelo Sol e pela Lua nas águas dos oceanos e também nos continentes. Um dos tipos de marés são as marés vivas, quando a amplitude da maré pode atingir até 3 metros segundo o Instituto Geográfico de Portugal.

Os grandes volumes de areias extraídos dos sistemas fluviais e das zonas portuárias nas últimas décadas conduziram um déficit sedimentar generalizado que se manifesta ao longo de grande parte da costa Portuguesa. Essas barreiras de proteção que foram construídas com uma altura média de 8 metros e 120 metros comprimentos segundo um estudo publicado na Revista de Gestão Costeira. A imagem abaixo mostra o acúmulo de areia na parte superior do espigão de proteção e as dunas destruídas por ondas em 2011.

Fig.2 Localização das dunas destruidas.

Essas zonas de proteção próximas aos quebra-mares apresentam fragilidades e em situações de mares vivas ou tempestades quando é mais provável ocorrer e destruição dessas dunas, como foi presenciado pelo autor em um trabalho de campo em Outubro de 2011 na zona das Gafanhas no distrito de Aveiro em que as ondas destruíram as dunas de proteção e a estrada, além de inundar e introduzindo água salgada na região.

As ondas de altura significante destruíram as dunas e mostraram sua força, lembrando que é preciso manter a guarda com relação aos desastres naturais e estudar mais os efeitos de obras de proteção junto às costa. A questão das alterações climáticas merecerá uma atenção redobrada para as áreas costeiras, em ações que ajudem a sociedade a adaptarem a um futuro mais quente.

Video feito no local junto com o Engenheiro e Ambientalista Marco Passarelli: