Reflections from COP19,Tuesday 12 November

The day started with very intense meeting and the soul of the morning it is “real ambitious”. Perhaps the next actions under the Kyoto Protocol are showing the reasons for these ambitious actions, with difficult questions related of the influence on the climate change.

A lot of conversion and discussions with effort by the parties to progress a better scenario of climate change. It is time now for decisions in order to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

The responsibility of every us to find mechanisms to face the climate change and collaborate with each other in order to have a bather balance in order of everyone have capacities to deal with the impacts of climate change, as the natural disasters.

The pronunciation of commission of Small Islands on the plenary room during the morning showed the climate security problem driven by climate change, one dimension of the security issue is natural disasters. Pacific island countries are among the most prone natural disasters globally. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of tropical storms according the last repost from IPCC from 2013.

The African Group was regarding the need for a permanent mechanism: “We don’t need to wait for the disasters to happen”. It should be remembered that many of the consequences of climate change are long-term, especially in terms of access to clean water, food security and human health. The G77 and China have given a veiled ultimatum that an agreement on a loss and damage mechanism is crucial for the success of the whole COP19.

At the plenary room during the afternoon was presented the results of the report from IPCC2013, the report had three main messages: climate change is happing; humans’ actions have influence and we need act urgently. The Philippines make a question for IPCC panel about the effect of ocean warming on tropical cyclones. There is also a demand for increased capacity building in relation to climate modelling in developing countries.

It is crucial changes and decisions that are so relevant to procedure in order for a sustainable climate with less impact of events such as natural disasters. Time is not on our side but the question is if we are all together to support these decisions.

Reflections from COP19, Monday 11 November

Today it is important National Independence Day here in Poland and is my first day at the COP19. The United Nations Climate Change Conference COP19 have 52 counties participating; it is possible to fell energy and importance of this event and the day. I am taking my train from Toruń to go to Warszawa and there a lot of station controlling documents.

When I first entered the he Conference Centre at the National I was both amazed and happy to see the excited faces of the diverse range of people from around the world. By contrast, the atmosphere among the participants was one of frustration, especially regarding the small island delegates.

We start the week with speaking about the importance to provide solutions for the adverse effects from the climate change, which are more emergence than ever. I hope this event will be an opportunity to remember that just with a global solution we can face the climate change. We hope the results of the work of this week in the COP19 will find a way for a more sustainable climate.

COP19, monday 11 November

COP19, monday 11 November

It is difficult not to mention in a conference about climate change the disasters caused by a strong storm a few days ago that acrossed the islands of the central PHILIPPINES. The winds reached 190m.p.h and the estimative at least 10,000 people many died, and while is happing COP19 people are suffering and without food. The potential for hazards as a response to climate change shows how potential can be the influences of anthropogenic actions.

At the plenary room a very emotional speech from Philippines in the afternoon make everyone to remember the recent hurricane where people during this conference are suffering the consequences of climate change. This presentation had been followed by a minute of silence.

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC-Gd5ufiwc&feature=youtu.be

 

The Risk of Strong Winds in Europe

ForecastAccurate knowledge of the frequency distribution of strong surface wind is of major relevance for insurance related risks in Europe. The risk of wind it a kind of not so a popular risk that people are very afraid. As financial losses due to weather extremes escalate, in the development of information related with of wind storm over Europe. The series of number of strong winds shows that in the last 40 years is accompanied by an increase in year-to-year of this phenomenon.

The series of number of strong winds (MeteoSchweiz n°216).

The series of number of strong winds (MeteoSchweiz n°216).

Some weeks ago I experience very windy afternoon in Toruń (city in Poland), a big tree felt down in front of the Department of Nicolaus Copernicus University and crashing into a car, the phenomenon shows how dangerous and extreme strong winds can be.

Results of a very windy afternoon in Toruń, Poland (Photo: Ewa Zukrowska).

Results of a very windy afternoon in Toruń, Poland (Photo: Ewa Zukrowska).

After some weeks the North Europe had suffered strong winds. The wind speeds reached more than 150 kph leaving a trail of damage across Europe. The wind brought down trees, blew roofs off houses and turned over trucks, leaving at least 600.000 people without electricity. As consequence of strong winds England, Germany, Denmark, Poland, Sweden and Netherland had some trees that had felt down, cut roads and railways, causing chaos. In a neighbour of London, the city cut the electricity that created a shot circuit followed by a gas explosion.

Evolution of the wind storm in Europe in octuber 2013 (MetOffice)

Evolution of the wind storm in Europe in octuber 2013 (MetOffice)

Climate change has promoted a wide study of the potential impacts of the enhanced green-house effect on the frequency of violent winds. The analysis of extreme winds follows two main different points of view: spatially distributed and generalized view. The magnitude and frequency of extreme wind speed is of fundamental importance for many safety of the society with more risks.

Destruição das dunas pelo mar: O caso das Gafanhas no distrito de Aveiro em Portugal

Um dos efeitos esperados como consequência das alterações climáticas é a erosão costeira. Portugal deve ser particularmente afetado pelo aumento de temperatura no futuro. Segundo o último relatório do Painel Intergovernamental para as Alterações Climáticas o pior cenário prevê um aumento de até 9°Celsius no verão até 2100.

Figura 1. Zonas das dunas sendo destruída por ondas em quatro momentos subsequentes (Foto: Rodrigo Ribeiro, 2011).

Figura 1. Zonas das dunas sendo destruída por ondas em quatro momentos subsequentes (Foto: Rodrigo Ribeiro, 2011).

A imagem acima mostra a destruição de dunas das Gafanhas em Aveiro provocado por ondas em uma das marés. Todos nós nos podemos observar o fenômeno das mares junto à costa, ocorrem quase sempre duas vezes ao dia e com relação ao ciclo lunar, ocorre devido a força gravitacional de atração exercida pelo Sol e pela Lua nas águas dos oceanos e também nos continentes. Um dos tipos de marés são as marés vivas, quando a amplitude da maré pode atingir até 3 metros segundo o Instituto Geográfico de Portugal.

Os grandes volumes de areias extraídos dos sistemas fluviais e das zonas portuárias nas últimas décadas conduziram um déficit sedimentar generalizado que se manifesta ao longo de grande parte da costa Portuguesa. Essas barreiras de proteção que foram construídas com uma altura média de 8 metros e 120 metros comprimentos segundo um estudo publicado na Revista de Gestão Costeira. A imagem abaixo mostra o acúmulo de areia na parte superior do espigão de proteção e as dunas destruídas por ondas em 2011.

Fig.2 Localização das dunas destruidas.

Fig.2 Localização das dunas destruidas.

Essas zonas de proteção próximas aos quebra-mares apresentam fragilidades e em situações de mares vivas ou tempestades quando é mais provável ocorrer e destruição dessas dunas, como foi presenciado pelo autor em um trabalho de campo em Outubro de 2011 na zona das Gafanhas no distrito de Aveiro em que as ondas destruíram as dunas de proteção e a estrada, além de inundar e introduzindo água salgada na região.

As ondas de altura significante destruíram as dunas e mostraram sua força, lembrando que é preciso manter a guarda com relação aos desastres naturais e estudar mais os efeitos de obras de proteção junto às costa. A questão das alterações climáticas merecerá uma atenção redobrada para as áreas costeiras, em ações que ajudem a sociedade a adaptarem a um futuro mais quente.

Video feito no local junto com o Engenheiro e Ambientalista Marco Passarelli:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFhXh9yyEgc&feature=youtu.be

 

Encuesta en São Luiz do Paraitinga

Las encuestas en São Luiz do Paraitinga se dejaron en establecimientos o entregadas personalmente durante en el mes de abril de 2013.

Llegando en Sao Luiz do Paraitinga (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro)

Llegando en Sao Luiz do Paraitinga (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro)

De las 103 encuestas que se repartieron, 92 fueron contestadas, siendo utilizadas 80 para el análisis del estudio.

São Luiz do Paraitinga (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro).

São Luiz do Paraitinga (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro).

Gracias a todos los residentes de São Luiz do Paraitinga que voluntariamente han dedicado su tiempo a contestar las encuestas sobre percepción de riesgo. A las autoridades, técnicos del ayuntamiento que me han facilitado datos y que siempre manifestaron buena predisposición en participar del estudio.

Calles de São Luiz do Paraitinga

Por las calles de São Luiz do Paraitinga (autor: Felipe Berenguel).

Encuestas en Guaranésia

Las encuestas en Guaranésia se dejaron en estabelecimientos o entregadas personalmente en el verano durante el mes de febrero de 2013.

Escuela en Guaranésia.

Escuela en Guaranésia.

De las 98 encuestas que se repartieron, 72 fueron contestadas, siendo utilizadas todas para el análisis del estudio.

Llagando en Guaranésia

Llegando en Guaranésia

Gracias a todos los residentes de Guaranésia por que voluntariamente han dedicado su tiempo a contestar las encuestas sobre percepción de riesgo. A las autoridades, a  Nádia Nadaleti jefe del Departamiento de Medio Ambiente de esto ayuntamiento que me han facilitado datos y que siempre manifestaron buena predisposición en participar del estudio.

El cultivo de café en Guaranésia.

El cultivo de café en Guaranésia.

 

Encuestas en Paranapiacaba

Las encuestas en Paranapiacaba se realizaron en el mes de febrero de 2013, hechas en las tres partes de la Vila: la Vila Portuguesa, Vila Vella y la Vila Martin Smith. Las encuestas se dejaron en estabelecimientos o entregadas personalmente.

El investigador Universidad de São Paulo, André Unti.

El investigador André Unti en Paranapiacaba .

Gracias a todos los residentes de Paranapiacaba que voluntariamente han dedicado su tiempo a contestar las encuestas sobre percepción de riesgo. A las autoridades, a Fatmia Scaf por facilitar la entrada en la reserva del bosque, a bilóloga Carolina Stefano del ayuntamiento que me han facilitado datos y que siempre manifestaron buena predisposición en participar del estudio.

Paranapiacaba

La investigadora Samia Sulaiman en  Paranapiacaba

Un agradecimiento muy especial a mis colegas de también desarrollan actividad investigativa en la Universidad de São Paulo, André Unti y Samia Sulaiman que me han ayudado con la realización de las encuestas en Brasil.

Andre, Samia y Rodrigo en Paranapiacaba.

Andre, Samia y Rodrigo en Paranapiacaba.

Paranapaicaba

Paranapiacaba y un nuevo amigo del Atelir Arte Pau-d’arco.

Paranapiacaba

Paranapiacaba  un nuevo amigo.

 

Encuestas en la Universidad de Alicante

En la Universidad de Alicante se llevaron a cabo encuestas online entre los miembros de su comunidad universitaria para analizar cómo perciben los riesgos naturales.

Universidad de Alicante en 1982.

Universidad de Alicante en 1982.

El cuestionario estaba disponible en una página web y fue enviado el enlace a todos los departamentos de la Universidad de Alicante.

Divulgación en la Universidad de Alicante

Divulgación en la Universidad de Alicante

Fueron analisadas 80 encuestas en el estudio. Gracias a todos los miembros de la Universidad de Alicante que voluntariamente han dedicado su tiempo a contestar las encuestas sobre percepción de riesgo.

Con los resultados se ha elaborado un articulo con el título:  Natural hazards perception: analysis of the academic community at University of Alicante.

Cuando el artículo estea publicado será colocado disponible en el blog.

Encuestas en El Campello

Las encuestas fueron dejadas en establecimientos o entregadas personalmente. Los cuestionarios fueron realizados durante el verano, en el mes de julio de 2012, personalmente.

El Campello (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro)

El Campello (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro)

El procedimiento elegido para realizar las encuestas fue el sistema de rutas zigzag hechas entre el Centro Social y el Centro Cultural de El Campello. Se justifica el área del trayecto por ser mayor la posibilidad de encontrar residentes de la localidad.

Barranco en El Campello (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro).

Barranco en El Campello (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro).

Gracias a todos los residentes de El Campello, que voluntariamente han dedicado su tiempo a contestar las encuestas sobre percepción de riesgo. A las autoridades, técnicos de estos ayuntamientos que me han facilitado datos y que siempre manifestaron buena predisposición en participar del estudio.

El Campello (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro).

El Campello (autor: Rodrigo Ribeiro).